Come postseason, Duke can turn it on
By: Alex Fanaroff
Issue date: 3/8/07 Section: M Basketball
Last update: 3/16/07 at 7:56 PM EST
Last update: 3/16/07 at 7:56 PM EST
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Although all good things have to come to an end sometime, this year will not be the year that Duke breaks the streak.
Of course, that's not what it looks like right now. The Blue Devils-losers of their last two games heading into the ACC Tournament, winless against four of the top five teams in the ACC and owners of an 8-8 record in conference play-don't exactly look like world-beaters.
But look a little closer.
The Blue Devils have played inarguably the toughest schedule in what is arguably the toughest conference in the country. Duke's conference opponents had a combined overall winning percentage of .662-by far the best mark of any team in the conference.
Duke's full schedule was the third toughest in the country, according to kenpom.com. Their opponents' overall offensive efficiency was the nation's highest.
The Blue Devils played 10 conference games against 20-win teams and 15 games against 20-win teams overall. They played an NCAA-high 17 games against teams ranked in the RPI top-50 and won eight of them, behind only North Carolina, UCLA and Maryland.
So even though Duke has lost a bunch of games recently, it remains more battle-tested and possesses more quality wins than any team it might play in the first couple of rounds.
In addition to their tough schedule, the Blue Devils have been unlucky. While I have no idea how Ken Pomeroy was able to rank the relative luck of all 336 Division I teams (it probably has to do with the number of games they should've won based on statistics and the actual number they won), the statistical guru has Duke ranked 283rd. According to Pomeroy, the Blue Devils lack of luck has cost them 1.5 games.
And anecdotally, any Blue Devil fan can cite several instances (the Florida State game at home, the Virginia game on the road), when a couple of breaks would have allowed Duke to win the game.
So you've got a 22-win team that has played one of the toughest schedules in America and has been unlucky while doing it. They're more talented than anyone they will face in the first two rounds (don't forget Duke's six McDonald's All-Americans), and they are coached by the second-winningest active coach. Still, everyone is stumbling all over themselves in the race to write the Blue Devils off.
If you ask me, that sounds like a recipe for a lot of shaking heads and grudging praise for Coach K when Duke wins its way into the Sweet 16.
Just remember, you heard it here first.
Viewing Comments 1 - 10 of 27
Kbot
posted 3/12/07 @ 9:42 AM EST
Shaking heads, yes. Grudging praise for Coach K, no. More nagging questions for Coach K.
Just remember, you heard it here first.
Bobby
posted 3/12/07 @ 11:18 AM EST
There's a big difference between can and will. Let's hope they make a run. Looking back on closely lost games is downright depressing. If we reciprocally looked at all the closely won games, Duke could have been last in ACC. (Continued…)
GH
posted 3/12/07 @ 4:33 PM EST
What we need is for Josh to stop trying to be a point guard and for Greg to be the point guard that he should be. We need an end to this sloppy, turnover prone play. (Continued…)
James Bradley
posted 3/13/07 @ 1:34 AM EST
I agree that what Duke really needs is for McRoberts to start playing like he did down the stretch against NC State. The inconsistency of such a talented player is sometimes baffling. (Continued…)
Ben Miller
posted 3/13/07 @ 12:30 PM EST
We have to remember that although Coach K has not had a team in this situation in recent memory, he does know how to motivate his team's during March. (Continued…)
a fan
posted 3/13/07 @ 1:07 PM EST
"Coach K and his mastery during the NCAA tournament"
That would be the mastery that helped him lead a 1 seed all the way to a 12-point loss to LSU in the Sweet 16 last year? I don't really mean to dump on Coach K here; overall (other than his propensity to go into a stall much too early) he's obviously a fine coach with a great record. (Continued…)
steve o'connor
posted 3/13/07 @ 3:35 PM EST
I guess over the last 30 or so years we've become spoiled when our blue devils don't win 30 games. We're so used to winning that it's hard to accept anything less. (Continued…)
J.C Mokes
posted 3/13/07 @ 4:38 PM EST
After watching "K" for his entire stretch @ Duke I believe the following is true.
1-He talks a lot about depth but no matter whose on the bench "7" is the magic number of players he's comfortable with. (Continued…)
tom
posted 3/14/07 @ 6:42 AM EST
If Coach K goes into a stall with more then 1 minute left he should resign. Hopefully he will realize that the games he has lost due to slowing the tempo have kept him from being the best coach of all time. (Continued…)
wilbur
posted 3/14/07 @ 12:30 PM EST
I did not realize we had sunk to where making the Sweet 16 was an accomplishment worth discussing.
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