The Chronicle

Issue date: 3/8/07 Section: M Basketball
Last update: 3/11/07 at 8:49 PM EST

Media Credit: SARA GUERRERO Duke was picked to finish second in the ACC, but after a strong preseason the Blue Devils have struggled.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but when classes resume after Spring Break, you won't be the only one returning to Duke feeling like you didn't accomplish as much as you'd hoped.

It pains me to say it as much as it pains you to read it, but the Blue Devils won't make it past the first weekend of this year's NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 seasons.

They won't lose because of the pressure or Coach K or luck-they will lose because they're just not good enough.

"But wait," you're saying. "When has being the best mattered in the tournament? Florida wasn't the best team heading into last year's tournament, and Illinois was the best two years ago, but the Gators won the title and the Illini didn't. They call it March Madness precisely because of its unpredictability."

The tournament isn't a coin toss. Last year, Florida was composed of the same players that have held the No. 1 ranking for much of this season. And in 2005, Illinois lost to a North Carolina team featuring Sean May and Raymond Felton. In other words, talent matters.

This year's Duke team, though, has proved inexperienced and inconsistent. These are exactly the types of weaknesses that a top-10 team-whom the Blue Devils will likely meet in the second round-routinely exploits, just as North Carolina has done twice this season.

Last year Syracuse ran the table in the Big East Tournament thanks to a stellar performance by Gerry McNamara and ended up an unexpected five-seed. Two years ago Alando Tucker led Wisconsin to a surprising berth in the Elite Eight. If one player gets hot, then anything can happen.

But this year's Blue Devils don't have someone like McNamara or Tucker to rely on. Last year it was clear that Duke's fate would hinge on J.J. Redick. When Redick was hot, the Blue Devils were the No. 1 team in the country. When he wasn't, well, let's not talk about that.

This year's team, however, hasn't established a go-to scorer, and its offense lacks a consistent identity. Defense has kept Duke in games all season, but in the tournament, when every opponent is formidable and every game can be close, the Blue Devils will need a reliable offensive option. Right now, they don't have one.

"So what?," you say. "This is the time when teams step up and turn it on."

I cannot help but wonder if the people clinging to this final hope-that Duke can suddenly flip a switch-have watched this season's games. We haven't been watching a team on auto-pilot.

Duke jumped out to big first-half leads three times during its four-game losing streak. Three of the team's losses went down to the final possession, when the Blue Devils couldn't get a big basket. Those weren't instances of Duke playing beneath itself-they were instances of the team's best not being good enough. Come tournament time, its best won't be good enough again.

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